Poker is a relatively simple game. The object is to win more than you lose. Statistically speaking, we all get the same amount of good hands and bad hands. It’s how you play them that will determine if you’re a winning player or not.
Following that logic, you’d think that the more hands you win, the more your profit, but it’s a little more complicated than that. If you win 70% of the hands you play to showdown and on each hand you win £10, but you lose £25 in the remaining 30% of hands you lose at showdown, you’ ll quickly find your stack dwindling.
It’s not important to win more hands at showdown, but it is important to win more money at showdown. I don’t really care if I lose 95% of the hands I play, as long as I make it all back and more in the other 5%. I can’t emphasise this enough: this game is judged by money – not hands or sessions. So how can we get paid off to the max?
LURING YOUR OPPONENTS IN
The following example comes from a recent $5/$5 no-limit hold’em game. The buy-ins averaged $300 to $500 and I had around $475. I had just joined the table and so had built up no real image for myself, but at the same time had no firm reads on anyone else.
Anyway, it’s the first flop I’ve seen for the night and I almost do a double-take because I’ve got J-9 on a J-J-9 flop and I’ve got position. I’m in the cut-off seat and the pot was unraised pre-flop. The player in the big blind bets $15 into the $30 pot and two players smooth-call. What might they have? I am seriously thinking one of them might have a Jack, one might have a 9 or maybe a flush draw or straight draw. I don’t go for straights or flushes when the board is paired, but I love that other people do.
Normally, I’m not one to slow-play, but this is a different case. Nobody is very deep so there is no urgency on my part to build up a big pot, and the last thing I want to do is chase away a draw that is probably drawing dead. I smooth- call. The pot is now $90 and the turn brings the inconsequential 4. The three players in front of me check and I have them all covered.
Your inclination might be to check to keep the draws in, but that would be a mistake. If the flush or straight card doesn’t come, you won’t get paid by drawing hands anyway. Instead, why not give them the correct price to go for their draw? This way you get paid off even if they don’t hit, and if they do hit you’ll be in better shape to stack them because the pot will be bigger.
I bet $45 into a $90 pot. I’m giving them ridiculously good odds. The first guy folds, the second guy thinks about it, looks like he might raise but just calls (I think he has a Jack and I’m going to Don’t switch off your strategy brain when you flop the nuts – you still have to work out how to get paid! get all his money on the river regardless) and the last player calls (flush draw?).
The pot is now $225. By betting on the turn, I’ve made the pot big enough that it will be harder for my opponents to fold good second-best hands and I’ve also made it big enough that I can really maximise my bet on the river.
KEY POINT
If you flop a monster and no one is showing strength, slow-playing is a legitimate strategy. Lure them in with calls and small bets, but always give drawing hands good odds to call
VALUE CALL OR VALUE SHOVE?
The river is the 3, completing any flush draws, and now it’s time to get paid. The first player checks, but the second player bets $150 into the pot, now $375 in total. Some players will just smooth-call and hope that gets the first player to call; others will re-raise all-in, hoping that both players call. But which is the correct play? Let’s take a look at each move mathematically to figure out which one offers more positive EV (Expected Value) over the long run.
If I re-raise all-in, Player 2 is probably going to call 100% of the time unless he is on a complete bluff. At this point, I don’t think Player 2 is bluffing, but I suppose he could have a missed straight draw. So let’s say that 90% of the time he wasn’t bluffing and he calls my re-raise. He only has $100 left and the pot will be at least $625, so by raising, I will get $100 more from Player 2 90% of the time.
9 OUT OF 10 TIMES RE-RAISING WILL EARN YOU $100 FROM PLAYER 2 (+$900 TOTAL)
1 OUT OF 10 TIMES PLAYER 2 WAS BLUFFING AND DOESN’T CALL (+$0 TOTAL)
Player 1 is the real variable here – how often will he call the original $150 bet, but fold to a re-raise? Remember, if he missed his draw or only had a 9, he’s probably going to fold to the original $150 bet anyway – in which case whether I call or raise is moot. However, for the purposes of this example, I’m going to assume that he has some sort of hand that he’d consider calling with. How often will he call the $150 bet, but not call an all-in raise?
For him to call the original $150 bet, he probably has to have at least trip Jacks or a flush. Most players have trouble getting away from trips, but now that the third club is out there, he might be inclined to fold. Let’s say he folds to a re-raise 80% of the time. So eight out of ten times, you don’t get Player 1’s $150 because you re-raised, but 20% of the time you get his $150 plus $225 (the rest of his stack).
8 OUT OF 10 TIMES RE-RAISING WILL COST YOU $150 FROM PLAYER 1 (-$1,200 TOTAL)
2 OUT OF 10 TIMES RE-RAISING WILL MAKE YOU AN ADDITIONAL $225 FROM PLAYER 1 (+$450 TOTAL)
Based on the above maths, re-raising will cost you $750 from Player 1 (or $75 per hand). But don’t forget, by re-raising, you are putting yourself in a position to get more money from Player 2. So, by re-raising we lose $750 from player 1, but gain $900 from player 2 for a profit of $150, or $15 per hand. (And, of course, in the cases we discounted from our calculations, where Player 1 has no hand at all, you make the full $90 per hand by re-raising, thus making our decision even easier.)
SMOOTH-CALLING
If you wanted, you could run through the maths for the scenario where you just smooth-called Player 2’s $150 bet, but you’ll find the numbers are essentially just reversed. Eight out of ten times against Player 1, you’ll earn $150 from the call, while the other two times you’ll lose $225. Against Player 2, just calling the bet obviously means that you can never get his final $100, resulting in a loss of $900. Thus our total loss when we smooth-call is: Player 1 (+$750) + Player 2 (-$900) = -$150 or a loss of $15 per hand.
So in this hand, re-raising clearly is a +EV (positive expectation) play; but keep in mind when you’re in a position like this how much money each player has and how likely it is for either player to call a re-raise.
In this case, I re-raised all-in and Player 1 shoved his money in faster than you could say ‘cold-decked’. Player 2 knew he was beaten, but at this point the pot was so big he couldn’t fold for just $100 more and I raked in a huge pot. Player 2 showed the Ace-high flush and Player 1 had pocket nines... ouch.
Author: David Tuchman
Poker strategy